Optimality and robustness of combinations of moving averages

J E Boylan () and F R Johnston
Additional contact information
J E Boylan: Buckinghamshire Chilterns University College
F R Johnston: University of Warwick

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2003, vol. 54, issue 1, 109-115

Abstract: Abstract A combination of moving averages has been shown previously to be more accurate than simple moving averages, under certain conditions, and to be more robust to non-optimal parameter specification. However, the use of the method depends on specification of three parameters: length of greater moving average, length of shorter moving average, and the weighting given to the former. In this paper, expressions are derived for the optimal values of the three parameters, under the conditions of a steady state model. These expressions reduce a three-parameter search to a single-parameter search. An expression is given for the variance of the sampling error of the optimal combination of moving averages and this is shown to be marginally greater than that for exponentially weighted moving averages (EWMA). Similar expressions for optimal parameters and the resultant variance are derived for equally weighted combinations. The sampling variance of the mean of such combinations is shown to be almost identical to the optimal general combination, thus simplifying the use of combinations further. It is demonstrated that equal weight combinations are more robust than EWMA to noise to signal ratios lower than expected, but less robust to noise to signal ratios higher than expected.

Keywords: forecasting; time-series; moving averages; combinations of forecasts; exponentially weighted moving averages (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601472 Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:54:y:2003:i:1:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601472

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... search/journal/41274

DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601472

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of the Operational Research Society is currently edited by Tom Archibald and Jonathan Crook

More articles in Journal of the Operational Research Society from Palgrave Macmillan, The OR Society
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().