Determining the best strategy for changing the configuration of a football team

N Hirotsu () and M Wright ()
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N Hirotsu: Lancaster University
M Wright: Lancaster University

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2003, vol. 54, issue 8, 878-887

Abstract: Abstract This paper proposes a dynamic programming (DP) approach to find the optimal substitution strategy for a football match, which maximises the probability of winning or the expected number of league points, supported by real data of the English Premier League. We use a Markov process model to evaluate the offensive and defensive strengths of teams by means of maximum likelihood estimators. We develop a DP formulation to derive quantitatively the optimal substitution strategy of a team, in relation to the number required of each type of outfield player. We demonstrate how this approach may help to determine how many of each type of player should start a match and be substituted during a match. We also show how the expected league points would increase if the optimal strategy were followed.

Keywords: decision; dynamic programming; Markov process; soccer; sports; substitution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601591

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