Functional estimation of activity criticality indices and sensitivity analysis of expected project completion time

Cho J-G () and Yum B-J
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Cho J-G: Dong-Eui University
Yum B-J: Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2004, vol. 55, issue 8, 850-859

Abstract: Abstract For a PERT network, a new method is developed for estimating the criticality index of activity i (ACI i ) as a function of the expected duration of activity i (μ i ) and for the sensitivity analysis of the expected project completion time (μ T ) with respect to μ i . The proposed method evaluates the frequency of activity i being on the critical path, and thereby its ACI i using Monte Carlo simulation or a Taguchi orthogonal array experiment at several values of μ i , fits a logistic regression model for estimating ACI i as a function of μ i , and then, using the estimated ACI i function, evaluates the amount of change in μ T when μ i is changed by a given amount. Unlike the previous works, the proposed method models ACI i as a nonlinear (ie, logistic) function of μ i , which can be used to estimate the amount of change in μ T for a variety of changes in μ i . Computational results indicate that the performance of the proposed method is comparable to that of direct Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: PERT; project management; regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601739

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