A semi-Markov approach for modelling asset deterioration

M Black, A T Brint () and J R Brailsford
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M Black: University of Salford
A T Brint: University of Salford
J R Brailsford: EA Technology

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2005, vol. 56, issue 11, 1241-1249

Abstract: Abstract Considerable benefits have been gained from using Markov decision processes to select condition-based maintenance policies for the asset management of infrastructure systems. A key part of the method is using a Markov process to model the deterioration of condition. However, the Markov model assumes constant transition probabilities irrespective of how long an item has been in a state. The semi-Markov model relaxes this assumption. This paper describes how to fit a semi-Markov model to observed condition data and the results achieved on two data sets. Good results were obtained even where there was only 1 year of observation data.

Keywords: maintenance; replacement; infrastructure networks; semi-Markov (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601967

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