Modelling treatment effects in the HIV/AIDS epidemic

J D Griffiths (), Z F Lawson and J E Williams
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J D Griffiths: Cardiff University, South Glamorgan
Z F Lawson: Cardiff University, South Glamorgan
J E Williams: Cardiff University, South Glamorgan

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2006, vol. 57, issue 12, 1413-1424

Abstract: Abstract Advances in recent treatments for HIV/AIDS patients have shown dramatic outcomes in extending the incubation period and AIDS survival time, while also providing significant improvements in the quality of patients' lives. A compartmental model is proposed to analyse the effects of the various treatment regimens which have been introduced. The results produced are in good agreement with routinely collected data relating to levels of HIV/AIDS incidence and prevalence in the UK homosexual population. Some parameter values within the model are obtained from surveys, census results, etc, but others are derived using a maximum likelihood estimation procedure. Finally, the model is used to project levels of incidence and prevalence over the next few years, and to investigate several possible scenarios.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS; compartmental model; treatment effects; maximum likelihood (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602120

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