Nonparametric adaptive opportunity-based age replacement strategies

P Coolen-Schrijner (), F P A Coolen and S C Shaw
Additional contact information
P Coolen-Schrijner: University of Durham
F P A Coolen: University of Durham
S C Shaw: University of Bath

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2006, vol. 57, issue 1, 63-81

Abstract: Abstract We consider opportunity-based age replacement (OAR) using nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for the time to failure of a future unit. Based on n observed failure times, NPI provides lower and upper bounds for the survival function for the time to failure Xn+1 of a future unit which lead to upper and lower cost functions, respectively, for OAR based on the renewal reward theorem. Optimal OAR strategies for unit n+1 follow by minimizing these cost functions. Following this strategy, unit n+1 is correctively replaced upon failure, or preventively replaced upon the first opportunity after the optimal OAR threshold. We study the effect of this replacement information for unit n+1 on the optimal OAR strategy for unit n+2. We illustrate our method with examples and a simulation study. Our method is fully adaptive to available data, providing an alternative to the classical approach where the probability distribution of a unit's time to failure is assumed to be known. We discuss the possible use of our method and compare it with the classical approach, where we conclude that in most situations our adaptive method performs very well, but that counter-intuitive results can occur.

Keywords: opportunity-based age replacement; nonparametric predictive inference; renewal reward theorem (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601954 Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:57:y:2006:i:1:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601954

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... search/journal/41274

DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601954

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of the Operational Research Society is currently edited by Tom Archibald and Jonathan Crook

More articles in Journal of the Operational Research Society from Palgrave Macmillan, The OR Society
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().