The value of information to decision makers: an experimental approach using card-based decision gaming

J Medhurst (), I M Stanton, H Bird and A Berry
Additional contact information
J Medhurst: Larrainzar Consulting Solutions Ltd
I M Stanton: Defence Science and Technology Laboratories
H Bird: Defence Science and Technology Laboratories
A Berry: Defence Science and Technology Laboratories

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2009, vol. 60, issue 6, 747-757

Abstract: Abstract This paper describes a novel experimental method for determining the value of different types of information to military decision makers. The experimental method used a simple scenario and a set of serials constructed from cards, each presenting a single piece of information and presented sequentially. Each of a number of pairs of players were taken through the scenario and asked to judge when they would make each of a pair of escalating responses to the situation. The data proved well suited to analysis using a probit model and is consistent with the hypothesis of a Bayesian decision mechanism with normally distributed ‘action points’. The methodology allowed the determination of weights for each of a number of different classes of information, together with estimates of the human and situational elements of variation, including estimates of the ‘prior belief’ of the different pairs of players.

Keywords: command and control; decision making; military; experimentation; biological; detectors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602616

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