A Bayesian approach for predicting match outcomes: The 2006 (Association) Football World Cup

A K Suzuki (), L E B Salasar, J G Leite and F Louzada-Neto
Additional contact information
A K Suzuki: Universidade Federal de São Carlos
L E B Salasar: Universidade Federal de São Carlos
J G Leite: Universidade Federal de São Carlos
F Louzada-Neto: Universidade Federal de São Carlos

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2010, vol. 61, issue 10, 1530-1539

Abstract: Abstract In this paper we propose a Bayesian methodology for predicting match outcomes. The methodology is illustrated on the 2006 Soccer World Cup. As prior information, we make use of the specialists’ opinions and the FIFA ratings. The method is applied to calculate the win, draw and loss probabilities at each match and also to simulate the whole competition in order to estimate classification probabilities in group stage and winning tournament chances for each team. The prediction capability of the proposed methodology is determined by the DeFinetti measure and by the percentage of correct forecasts.

Keywords: Bayesian inference; forecasting; simulation; Soccer World Cup; sports; statistics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1057/jors.2009.127 Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:61:y:2010:i:10:d:10.1057_jors.2009.127

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... search/journal/41274

DOI: 10.1057/jors.2009.127

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of the Operational Research Society is currently edited by Tom Archibald and Jonathan Crook

More articles in Journal of the Operational Research Society from Palgrave Macmillan, The OR Society
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().