Predicting ambulance demand using singular spectrum analysis

J L Vile, J W Gillard, P R Harper and V A Knight
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J L Vile: Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
J W Gillard: Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
P R Harper: Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
V A Knight: Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2012, vol. 63, issue 11, 1556-1565

Abstract: This paper demonstrates techniques to generate accurate predictions of demand exerted upon the Emergency Medical Services (EMS) using data provided by the Welsh Ambulance Service Trust (WAST). The aim is to explore new methods to produce accurate forecasts that can be subsequently embedded into current OR methodologies to optimise resource allocation of vehicles and staff, and allow rapid response to potentially life-threatening emergencies. Our analysis explores a relatively new non-parametric technique for time series analysis known as Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). We explain the theory of SSA and evaluate the performance of this approach by comparing the results with those produced by conventional time series methods. We show that in addition to being more flexible in approach, SSA produces superior longer-term forecasts (which are especially helpful for EMS planning), and comparable shorter-term forecasts to well established methods.

Date: 2012
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