Applying structured scenario fusion to address multifaceted strategic challenges&star

Alec D Barker
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Alec D Barker: George Mason University and Group W Inc., Fairfax, VA, USA

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2014, vol. 65, issue 11, 1726-1734

Abstract: This paper proposes an applied method by which to fuse multiple independently developed scenarios to serve as a basis for strategic studies in the national security operations research community. First, it describes the need to fuse scenarios methodically as a consequence of the evolution of global security conditions and as a matter of logic that might be otherwise overlooked. Second, it proposes applying Structured Scenario Fusion (SSF), a method that uses three stylized tables to systematically and transparently record the process of scenario fusion. Third, it provides an example application set in a hypothetical study of future security conditions in Somalia. It concludes that SSF offers a promising way to improve the pedigree, realism, and logic of assumptions underpinning scenario-based strategic studies, as well as the quality of strategic decisions and plans thereby justified.

Date: 2014
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