Contagion in cyber security attacks

Adrian Baldwin, Iffat Gheyas, Christos Ioannidis, David Pym and Julian Williams ()
Additional contact information
Adrian Baldwin: HP Labs
Iffat Gheyas: Birmingham City University
Christos Ioannidis: University of Bath
David Pym: University College London
Julian Williams: University of Durham

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2017, vol. 68, issue 7, 780-791

Abstract: Abstract Systems security is essential for the efficient operation of all organizations. Indeed, most large firms employ a designated ‘Chief Information Security Officer’ to coordinate the operational aspects of the organization’s information security. Part of this role is in planning investment responses to information security threats against the firm’s corporate network infrastructure. To this end, we develop and estimate a vector equation system of threats to 10 important IP services, using industry standard SANS data on threats to various components of a firm’s information system over the period January 2003 – February 2011. Our results reveal strong evidence of contagion between such attacks, with attacks on ssh and Secure Web Server indicating increased attack activity on other ports. Security managers who ignore such contagious inter-relationships may underestimate the underlying risk to their systems’ defence of security attributes, such as sensitivity and criticality, and thus delay appropriate information security investments.

Keywords: Jumps; contagion; Hawkes process; Self- and mutually exciting processes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1057/jors.2016.37

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