A wavelet and neural network model for the prediction of dry bulk shipping indices

Yordan Leonov and Ventsislav Nikolov
Additional contact information
Yordan Leonov: Department of Navigation, Transport Management and Waterways Preservation, Technical University of Varna, 1, Studentska str., Varna 9010, Bulgaria.
Ventsislav Nikolov: Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Technical University of Varna, 1, Studentska str., Varna 9010, Bulgaria.

Maritime Economics & Logistics, 2012, vol. 14, issue 3, 319-333

Abstract: Shipping markets are typically volatile in nature, as manifest in the dynamics of freight rates. According to shipowners’ risk propensity, volatility-related decisions vary from what kind of contract (time/voyage charter) to engage in to whether to enter/exit the business. After a sharp drop in freight rates at the end of 2008, a discussion about appropriate risk management concepts and statistical tools is needed. Owing to the magnitude of investment required in shipping, any additional information regarding the future direction of market volatility is of the utmost importance. The ambition of this article is exactly the same: to study fluctuations in the freight rates of the Baltic Panamax route 2A and the Baltic Panamax route 3A, using a tool of analysis that is new to shipping economics: a hybrid model of wavelets and neural networks. The wavelet multiscale decomposition of time series reveals volatility dynamics across different time frequencies and will uncover patterns that will be used by neural networks for prediction.

Date: 2012
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/mel/journal/v14/n3/pdf/mel201210a.pdf Link to full text PDF (application/pdf)
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/mel/journal/v14/n3/full/mel201210a.html Link to full text HTML (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:marecl:v:14:y:2012:i:3:p:319-333

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... nt/journal/41278/PS2

Access Statistics for this article

Maritime Economics & Logistics is currently edited by Hercules E. Haralambides

More articles in Maritime Economics & Logistics from Palgrave Macmillan, International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().