Forecasting container port volume: implications for dredging

Sang-Yoon Lee, Hyunwoo Lim () and Hwa-Joong Kim
Additional contact information
Sang-Yoon Lee: INHA University
Hyunwoo Lim: INHA University
Hwa-Joong Kim: INHA University

Maritime Economics & Logistics, 2017, vol. 19, issue 2, No 6, 296-314

Abstract: Abstract This paper aims to provide a practical method for forecasting potential container cargo volume that can be induced by a port development project on a container transport network by combining port choice and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The entrance channel improvement plan for Incheon New Port in South Korea is used as a case study. Based on the stated preference data collected from domestic shippers, a discrete choice analysis is performed to estimate the future market share of three major ports in South Korea: Busan, Gwangyang, and Incheon. The estimated market share of Incheon New Port is used to forecast its future container volume derived by the ARIMA model and the potential port development scenarios.

Keywords: container demand forecast; transport network; port choice; stated preference; multinomial logit model; port entrance channel dredging (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41278-016-0054-4 Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:marecl:v:19:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1057_s41278-016-0054-4

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... nt/journal/41278/PS2

DOI: 10.1057/s41278-016-0054-4

Access Statistics for this article

Maritime Economics & Logistics is currently edited by Hercules E. Haralambides

More articles in Maritime Economics & Logistics from Palgrave Macmillan, International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().