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Asset Bubbles in Shipping? An Analysis of Recent History in the Drybulk Market

Roar Adland, Haiying Jia and Siri Strandenes
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Roar Adland: [1] Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, P.R. China [2] Clarkson Fund Management Ltd., London, UK
Haiying Jia: Cass Business School, City University, London, UK

Maritime Economics & Logistics, 2006, vol. 8, issue 3, 223-233

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the hypothesis that the freight market boom in the drybulk freight market between 2003 and 2005 caused asset values in the second-hand market to deviate from underlying fundamentals. We test the instantaneous equilibrium relationship between the markets for second-hand ships, newbuildings and freight in a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework. We also estimate and account for the time-varying delivery lag in the newbuilding market. Our empirical results suggest that the second-hand market was closely cointegrated with the fundamental freight and newbuilding market with no evidence of a short-term asset ‘bubble’. Maritime Economics & Logistics (2006) 8, 223–233. doi:10.1057/palgrave.mel.9100162

Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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