After the pandemic: the global seafood trade market forecasts in 2030

Chunzhu Wei, Mo Zhang, Wei Chen, Yong Ge (), Daoping Wang, Die Zhang, Desheng Xue (), Qiuming Cheng, Changxiu Cheng and Wenguang Zhang
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Chunzhu Wei: Sun Yat-sen University
Mo Zhang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Wei Chen: Sun Yat-sen University
Yong Ge: Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
Daoping Wang: University of Cambridge
Die Zhang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Desheng Xue: Sun Yat-sen University
Qiuming Cheng: Sun Yat-Sen University
Changxiu Cheng: Beijing Normal University
Wenguang Zhang: Beijing Normal University

Palgrave Communications, 2023, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract The COVID-19 lockdowns have transitioned to a new normal and triggered commodity supply disruption and trade uncertainty, yet little is known about the seafood trade resilience of developing and developed countries amid pandemic-related shocks. Here, employing a newly developed geographical transition-net model, we simulate a set of idealized lockdown scenarios in a real-world seafood network. The results show that (1) even if restrictions from regions with high strictness policies were eventually lifted globally at the end of 2022, the pandemic-induced disruption will continue to affect global seafood trade until 2030, and the annual growth rate of the global seafood market would be around 1% lower than that during 2006–2019; (2) Due to the continued high level of stringency in China in 2022 and the soaring demand of seafood in the developed countries in the post-COVID-19 era, developed countries are increasingly reliant on their intra-regional trade until 2030; (3) The global seafood supply chains will magnify export losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19, and there would be 17 to 57 million people in the developing countries in 2030 facing seafood supply shortage. The new long-term challenge is to call for the multilateral cooperation of major exporters for global seafood trade recovery. Our study provides a new perspective to evaluate the economic impact of COVID-19 as well as the cascading effect caused by the supply-chain linkages in the global seafood system.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1057/s41599-023-02070-6

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