Analysis of the agricultural economic value of a weather forecasting service based on a survey of peasant households in Chinese provinces

Danna Shen, Xiaofeng Zhao, Leyi Chai, Zhuanzhuan Guo and Chunxiang Leng ()
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Danna Shen: China Meteorological Administration
Xiaofeng Zhao: China Meteorological Administration
Leyi Chai: Renmin University of China
Zhuanzhuan Guo: China Meteorological Administration
Chunxiang Leng: China Meteorological Administration

Palgrave Communications, 2024, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract The enhancement of weather forecasting capabilities plays a pivotal role in agricultural production, storage, and transportation. This paper conducts a comprehensive survey among agricultural producers across 31 provinces and over 1000 counties in China using household questionnaires. The collected data is analyzed utilizing a multiple linear regression model that incorporates clustering and robust standard errors to ensure accurate results. The findings reveal a positive correlation between the frequency at which agricultural production entities pay attention to meteorological forecast information and the subsequent incremental increase in their income. Moreover, it is observed that both the number of access channels to meteorological information and their frequency significantly impact the rise in agricultural income attributed to such forecasts. Specifically, each additional type of access channel leads to an average income increase of 11.11 yuan. Furthermore, through regression analysis, this study demonstrates statistically significant effects of meteorological forecasts on cost savings as well as income growth within the realm of agricultural production.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1057/s41599-024-02685-3

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