Risk assessment and categorization of terrorist attacks based on the Global Terrorism Database from 1970 to 2020

Zonghuang Xu, Yao Lin, Hongyu Cai, Wei Zhang, Jin Shi () and Lingyun Situ
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Zonghuang Xu: Nanjing University
Yao Lin: Nanjing University
Hongyu Cai: Nanjing University
Wei Zhang: Nanjing University
Jin Shi: Nanjing University
Lingyun Situ: Nanjing University

Palgrave Communications, 2024, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Risk assessment and categorization of terrorist attacks can assist enhance awareness of terrorism and give crucial information support for anti-terrorism efforts. This study utilizes quantitative approaches for the risk assessment and categorization of terrorist attacks. A total of 210,454 terrorist attacks that occurred worldwide from 1970 through 2020 were collected in the Global Terrorism Database, and 22 indicators related to the risk of terrorist attacks were selected. Then, the moment estimation theory and four comprehensive evaluation models were utilized to identify the top 10 riskiest terrorist attacks in the world. Furthermore, the five clustering analysis methods and three evaluation criteria were performed for the risk categorization of terrorist attacks, and the visual analysis was carried out using the kernel density estimation method. The research results have identified the top 10 riskiest global terrorist attacks, which were led by the September 11 terrorist attack event, along with their downward counterfactual events. The spatial distribution of global terrorist attack risk is primarily composed of four “turbulent cores” in the region of Central Asia, Middle East & North Africa, South Asia, and Central America & Caribbean. This study also provided insights and recommendations for anti-terrorism efforts. It has realized the risk assessment and categorization of terrorist attacks, aiding in the swift identification of its risk levels, and holds immense significance for safeguarding global national security and societal stability under new circumstances.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1057/s41599-024-03597-y

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