Assessment of national economic repercussions from Shanghai’s COVID-19 lockdown

Zengming Liu, Yanan Wang (), Xiaoyong Huang, Zihan Zhang, Qingsheng Lai and Meng Li
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Zengming Liu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yanan Wang: University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Xiaoyong Huang: University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Zihan Zhang: Tsinghua University
Qingsheng Lai: Fudan University
Meng Li: Northwest A&F University

Palgrave Communications, 2024, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract In today’s increasingly specialized and fragmented sectoral chain, as well as increasingly close economic connections between regions, regional economic fluctuations caused by natural or human factors can be transmitted through the interregional economic network to external regions, causing losses. The assessment of external losses is the foundation for fully understanding the impact of emergencies and taking effective response measures. On the basis of the MRIO model, this paper constructs a model of the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai on the national economy and investigates the impact of artificial controls on the economies of various regions and sectors in China after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results indicate that the external losses caused by regional emergencies are much greater than the local losses. Second, the sectors with the greatest GDP losses caused by Shanghai’s lockdown are wholesale and retail, whereas the sectors with the greatest decline are metal product manufacturing, machinery and equipment maintenance services. Finally, the impact of Shanghai’s lockdown on other regions is not significantly related to their economic size or geographical location.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1057/s41599-024-04100-3

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