Having another baby on the move? Geographical variation in the determinants of migrant women’s fertility intentions for another child among Chinese cities

Hengyu Gu () and Yuhao Lin
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Hengyu Gu: Nanjing University
Yuhao Lin: Wuhan University

Palgrave Communications, 2025, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract The low fertility rate has brought China new economic and social development challenges. Against the background of the continuous adjustment of the fertility policy, it is crucial to explore the fertility intentions of migrants in rapidly urbanising China. Supported by a nationwide survey for Chinese migrants, this study constructs a comprehensive framework that includes indicators of individual characteristics, family status, economic opportunities, and sociocultural conditions and employs a multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model to explore the spatial characteristics of migrant women’s fertility intentions for another child in urban China. The results show that fertility intentions are generally at a low level throughout China, with the Northeast region being much lower than other regions. A “U” shape relationship exists between the fertility intention and urban economic levels. The results also indicate three types of spatial nonstationarity patterns of determinants affecting the fertility intention across cities: global gradient trends (age, floating time, cultural diversity, children’s educational opportunities), local gradient trends (education level, migration intention, family purchasing power, social acceptance), and local clusters (health status, agricultural hukou, the number of children, GDP per capita, industrial structure, fertility policy), with their influence scales decreasing sequentially. Group differences, cultural cognition, and social security are mechanisms for interpreting these spatially varying determinants. From the lens of geographical differences, our findings aim to provide policy implications for understanding the fertility trend among migrant groups in China.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1057/s41599-024-04282-w

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