The vision of younger-seniors-based elderly care in rural China: based on population aging predictions from 2020 to 2050

Haojian Dou, Cheng Wang (), Guishan Cheng, Xiaoyan Lei and Shuang Xu
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Haojian Dou: Southwest University
Cheng Wang: Southwest University
Guishan Cheng: Southwest University
Xiaoyan Lei: Southwest University
Shuang Xu: Southwest University

Palgrave Communications, 2025, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Population aging is an irreversible and challenging global trend. Factors that worsen it in rural areas include the outflow of young adults, lack of medical resources, and uneven economic development. Based on projections of rural population aging trends in China from 2020 to 2050, this article explores the growth trends and spatial heterogeneity of elderly populations in rural areas. The results indicate that from 2020 to 2050, the aging rate in rural China will increase from 13.49% to 28.74%. Spatial disparities were observed in the East and North regions, with higher rates than in the West and South regions. Also, a turning point in rural aging is projected for 2050, with a decrease for the first time in Chongqing (−0.26%) and Gansu (−0.03%). This paper introduces the vision of younger-seniors-based elderly care, emphasizing the central role of families and the mutual assistance relationships within villages and highlighting the active role of younger elderly individuals in eldercare services. Furthermore, this paper proposes a feasible global application of this vision while identifying key issues that should be addressed in its implementation. This vision provides theoretical guidance for actively responding to rural population aging and is instrumental in advancing sustainable development goals.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1057/s41599-025-04994-7

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