Revisiting the price transmission from international commodity to Chinese agricultural products based on an industry chain perspective

Qingru Sun, Jinfeng Miao (), Yaojun Shan (), Shukun Hu, Mingting Ding and Han Zhang
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Qingru Sun: Hebei University
Jinfeng Miao: Hebei Vocational University of Technology and Engineering
Yaojun Shan: Hebei University
Shukun Hu: Hebei University
Mingting Ding: Hebei University
Han Zhang: Hebei University

Palgrave Communications, 2025, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract The previous researches proved that the price fluctuations of international commodity can significantly influence the price of agricultural products. In fact, the affected agricultural products may further transmit the impacts to other products along the agricultural industry chain, and cause direct and indirect effects from international commodity to agriculture-related products, which is defined as cascaded transmission in this paper. To reveal the cascaded transmission effects, this paper designs a novel model combining the econometric methods and the network analysis method. Taking the Commodity Research Bureau index (CRB) and the price indexes of 21 Chinese agriculture-related products as empirical data, the following results were obtained. (1) The transmission path of price fluctuations from CRB to Chinese agricultural products is complex, rather than along the agricultural chain from upstream to downstream. (2) The indirect effects of CRB on agricultural products cannot be ignored, and the transmission relationships are tighter than the nonlinear relationships. (3) The roles of agricultural products are different in the cascaded transmission process. Price regulatory authorities should categorize agricultural products to achieve decentralized management and mitigate the impacts of the international commodity market volatility.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1057/s41599-025-05238-4

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