Gaps between market performance, government planning and social objectives: projections and comparisons of carbon price intervals

Xing Zhou, Jianze Xu, Ming Zhang (), Anyi Niu () and Chuxia Lin
Additional contact information
Xing Zhou: Jiangsu Normal University
Jianze Xu: Jiangsu Normal University
Ming Zhang: China University of Mining and Technology
Anyi Niu: Jilin University
Chuxia Lin: Deakin University

Palgrave Communications, 2025, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-20

Abstract: Abstract The core function of the carbon market is price discovery, but the current carbon prices neither reflect government planning to reduce emissions nor provide the necessary incentives for the innovation of low-carbon technologies in society. This study developed the Hubei carbon price probability forecasting models using machine learning and stochastic analysis from the perspectives of market performance, government planning, and social objectives. The carbon price interval expected by the government is slightly higher than that indicated by market performance, so there still exists a significant gap compared to the incentives required for innovation in low-carbon technologies. To fall within the 90% highest posterior density interval of the shadow price, it would need to be increased by at least 33 times. The differences in price intervals between the different perspectives are crucial for the government to address, as they reflect the complex interplay between environmental ambition, operational decisions and political acceptability.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41599-025-05482-8 Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palcom:v:12:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-025-05482-8

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/palcomms/about

DOI: 10.1057/s41599-025-05482-8

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Palgrave Communications from Palgrave Macmillan
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().