The spatial disequilibrium and influencing factors of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt based on nighttime light data

Zhuo He ()
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Zhuo He: Nanchang Institute of Technology

Palgrave Communications, 2025, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract As carbon emissions continue to rise, it poses a severe challenge for countries worldwide in addressing climate change. The Yangtze River Economic Belt, as an important economic region in China, investigating the spatial disequilibrium and influencing factors of the Yangtze River Economic Belt plays a crucial role in promoting the transition to a low-carbon economy in the region. This paper takes 108 cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object, and uses kernel density estimation, Moran’s index, spatial Markov chain and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression to discuss the spatial disequilibrium of carbon emission and its influencing factors. Research findings: First, in terms of time trend, carbon emissions in cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt show a significant upward trend. In terms of space, spatial disequilibrium of carbon emissions is increasing, and carbon emissions at or above medium level are concentrated in Chongqing, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang. Second, urban carbon emissions have significant spatiotemporal evolution characteristics. That is, the local Moran’s I reveals low-low agglomeration distribution in Sichuan, Yunnan, Hubei and Hunan. Space Markov chain shows that urban carbon emissions will show the agglomeration effect of low and high carbon emissions. Third, education development, economic development, human capital, industrial structure, government intervention and scientific and technological development all promote carbon emissions. The promoting effect of human capital on carbon emissions is weakening year by year, and the industrial structure shows an inhibitory effect in the early stage. This research provides a theoretical basis for the large emission reduction and carbon reduction policy in the Yangtze River economy, and provides quantitative support for accelerating the pace of “dual-carbon”.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1057/s41599-025-05739-2

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