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Testing expected shortfall: an application to emerging market stock indices

Emilio Cardona (), Andrés Mora-Valencia and Daniel Velásquez-Gaviria ()
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Emilio Cardona: Universidad de los Andes, School of Management
Daniel Velásquez-Gaviria: Universidad EAFIT

Risk Management, 2019, vol. 21, issue 3, 153-182

Abstract: Abstract In a recent paper, Acerbi and Székely (Risk Magazine, 76–81, 2014) presented three methods to test expected shortfall, and this is the first empirical application of that paper on emerging markets. We employ daily stock index returns from the Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. Emerging Markets Index covering the 2000–2015 period, extending Acerbi and Székely (Risk Magazine, 76–81, 2014) results to derive the significance thresholds for the Student’s skewed-t distribution using two testing methods. We find that the thresholds for the Z1 Test and Z2 Test for skewed-t distribution are similar to the values obtained by Acerbi and Székely for Student’s t distribution. Therefore, the Z1 and Z2 thresholds are invariant to the skewed-t-shaped parameter values found in the emerging market stock indices. Empirical results show outperformance of Student’s skewed-t and Student’s t distributions over Gaussian distribution.

Keywords: Value-at-risk; Expected shortfall; Backtesting; Skewed-t (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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