Economics at your fingertips  

Assessing Thailand’s financial vulnerability: An early warning approach

Chin-Hong Puah (), Tai-Hock Kuek, and M. Affendy Arip,

Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), 2017, vol. 13, issue 4, 496-505

Abstract: This paper intends to assess financial vulnerability in Thailand through the construction of a financial vulnerability indicator (FVI). This early warning system has been developed using the signals approach proposed by Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), followed by composite indicator construction. The period under study spans from January 2000 through to December 2016. Our empirical findings indicate that exports has the lowest noise-to-signal ratio (0.13), followed by real GDP (0.15) and house price index (0.20). These suggest that financial crises are usually preceded by a weakening in exports, a slowdown in the economy and a decline in house price. For Thailand, four major financial episodes are successfully outlined during the study period, demonstrating the effectiveness of an early warning system in financial vulnerability forecasting.

Keywords: Financial vulnerability indicator; early warning; signals approach. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 G01 G28 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) ... roach_pp.496-505.pdf (application/pdf) ... mber=28&article=2417 (text/html)

Related works:
Journal Article: Assessing Thailand’s financial vulnerability: An early warning approach (2017) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

DOI: 10.15208/beh.2017.34

Access Statistics for this article

Business and Economic Horizons (BEH) is currently edited by Orifjan Namozov, Ph.D.

More articles in Business and Economic Horizons (BEH) from Prague Development Center Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jaroslav Holecek ().

Page updated 2019-05-28
Handle: RePEc:pdc:jrnbeh:v:13:y:2017:i:4:p:496-505