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INTER-ELECTION VOTE SWINGS FOR THE TURKISH RULING PARTY: THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND OTHER FACTORS

Ali Akarca ()

Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 2011, vol. 6, issue 3, 7-25

Abstract: Inter-election vote swings for the AKP, the incumbent party in Turkey, during 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009 and 2011 elections are decomposed into parts attributable to economic conditions, strategic voting, cost of ruling, incumbency advantage, political realignment and other factors. For this purpose a vote equation, fitted to data covering twenty-seven National Assembly, Senate, and Provincial Council elections, held between 1950 and 2011 is used. The results show the pivotal role played by the economy on the political fortunes of incumbent parties.

Keywords: elections; Vote swing; Economic voting; Economic performance; AKP; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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