THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS IN FORECASTING THE AGRICULTURAL PRICES IN POLAND

Agnieszka Tluczak and Miroslawa Szewczyk
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Agnieszka Tluczak: Opole University
Miroslawa Szewczyk: Opole University

Oeconomia Copernicana, 2010, vol. 1, issue 1, 99-119

Abstract: The forecast of agricultural prices is one of the most important factors in making decision on production farms. The appropriate forecast allows for limiting the risk connected with one’s economic activity. In this study autoregressive models have been used, which helped to determine the price forecast for agricultural products in the purchasing centers in the second half of 2010. To determine the quality of forecast the average ex-post errors of the past forecasts have been used. The achieved results show that autoregressive models are an effective tool in fore-casting the agricultural prices in Poland.

Keywords: autoregressive models; forecasting; agricultural prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pes:ieroec:v:1:y:2010:i:1:p:99-119

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