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W-shaped Recovery in the Two Waves of the Coronavirus Pandemic

Daniel Molnar (), Diana Horvath () and Gabor Regos ()
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Daniel Molnar: macroeconomic analyst, Századvég Economic Research Institute Plc, PhD-student, Corvinus University of Budapest
Diana Horvath: macroeconomic analyst, Századvég Economic Research Institute Plc,PhD-student, Corvinus University of Budapest
Gabor Regos: macroeconomic business leader, Századvég Economic Research Institute Plc.

Public Finance Quarterly, 2021, vol. 66, issue 1, 68 - 90

Abstract: Our study aims to examine how the course of the coronavirus crisis took place in certain areas, using macroeconomic data and a household and business survey. Our results suggest that the virus has affected different sectors to varying degrees: while some sectors have experienced rapid recovery, others have been characterized by a protracted crisis. The second wave of the coronavirus in the autumn also resulted in a decline in economic data, but to a lesser extent than the first wave in the spring. Overall, the course of the crisis can be considered W-shaped, although some aspects and sectors show a different picture. However, as the viral situation eases, it will be an important task of economic policy to ensure that the last stem of W is steep, i.e. that the Hungarian economy can return to its previous growth trajectory. To this end, it is essential to lift restrictions so that household consumption can once again become the engine of growth and to increase the willingness of companies to invest.

Keywords: : coronavirus; economic crisis; economic outlook; crisis waves (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E60 E61 H12 I15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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