A Top-Down Econometric Model for a Philippine Region

Rolando A. Danao
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Rolando A. Danao: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman

Philippine Review of Economics, 1991, vol. 28, issue 2, 127-153

Abstract: This paper demonstrates the feasibility of constructing a supply-determined top-down econometric model for a Philippine region. The specification, estimation, historical simulation, and ex-post forecast of the model for Region 7 (Central Visayas) are presented. The simulation shows that the model tracks the sample period and ex-post values fairly well. The model could serve as a prototype for the other regions. The regional models could form a system of satellite models that could be linked to a national model which can then be used to determine regional forecasts consistent with a national forecast.

Date: 1991
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