Fixing the Money Stock vs. Fixing the Interest Rate: A VAR Model

Benjamin A. Endriga
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Benjamin A. Endriga: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman

Philippine Review of Economics, 1993, vol. 30, issue 1, 102-121

Abstract: The "instrument problem" in monetary policy has centered on the question of whether controlling the money stock or fixing the interest rate is more preferable in terms of higher and more stable output. The former policy implies a stable price level but less investments due to a fluctuating interest rate; the latter implies a more stable investment climate but a volatile price level. This paper examines the conditions under which either of the two policies would be more suitable for the case of the Philippines. This study uses monthly data on money supply, output, prices, interest rates, and exchange rates for the period 1981-1991. A vector autoregressive model based on a work by Christopher Sims (1980) is used to estimate the parameters. The regression results show that a money-target regime seems to be more appropriate for the Philippine case as a result of the price effects of money-stock changes and the non-significance of the interest rate coefficients in the output equations.

Date: 1993
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