A semiparametric assessment of export-led growth in the Philippines

Lorna E. Amrinto and Hector O. Zapata
Additional contact information
Lorna E. Amrinto: Economics Department, University of San Carlos
Hector O. Zapata: Louisiana State University, USA

Philippine Review of Economics, 2006, vol. 43, issue 2, 1-22

Abstract: The export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for the Philippines is examined by adopting a semiparametric approach under two levels of temporal aggregation. To assess the impact of model specification on the ELG hypothesis, parametric and semiparametric error-correction models (ECMs) are estimated using Philippine annual and quarterly data on gross domestic product (GDP), exports, exchange rates, and gross fixed-capital formation, focusing on the role of exchange rates. The causal relationship between exports and economic growth is examined using the Granger-causality procedure. It can be concluded that for the Philippines, the ELG hypothesis is (a) sensitive to model specification and (b) affected by different levels of temporal aggregation and by the inclusion or exclusion of exchange rates. The general results on bidirectional causality between exports and economic growth suggest that the Philippines could enjoy economic prosperity by strengthening its trade and investment policy and gearing it toward opening up the economy.

Keywords: export-led growth; semiparametric error-correction model; Granger causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B41 C12 C13 C14 C32 F43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/246/606 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:43:y:2006:i:2:p:1-22

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Philippine Review of Economics from University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by HR Rabe ().