An Analysis of Exports and Growth in Pakistan

Muhammad A. Quddus and Ikram Saeed
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Muhammad A. Quddus: Punjab Economic Research Institute, Planning and Development Department, Government of the Punjab, Lahore.
Ikram Saeed: Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), Islamabad.

The Pakistan Development Review, 2005, vol. 44, issue 4, 921-937

Abstract: The paper examines the export-led growth (ELG) paradigm for Pakistan, using data of the period from 1970-71 to 2003-04. The paper uses a number of analytical tools, including Unit Root Test, Phillips- Perron Tests, Co-integration Johansen Test, and the Granger Tests. The paper sets three hypotheses for testing the ELG paradigm for Pakistan; (a) whether GDP and exports are cointegrated, (b) whether exports Granger cause growth, and (c) whether exports Granger cause investment. The time series data on GDP growth, export growth and investment GDP ratio (proxy for capital formation), and the labour employed were used. The data were tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and Phillips-Perron test (1988), and then the relationship between GDP growth rate and the growth rate of other variables was determined using OLS with AR (1). The major finding of the present study is that growth rate of export, total investment, and labour employed have positively affected the GDP growth rate

Date: 2005
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