 Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending in Pakistan’s EconomyAttiya Javid and Umaima Arif () The Pakistan Development Review, 2009, vol. 48, issue 4, 973–988 Abstract: This study analyses the effects of changes in government spending on aggregate economic activity and the way these effects are transmitted in case of Pakistan for the period 1971–2008. To analyse the transmission mechanism of government spending innovations, the Vector Autoregressive Model is estimated for following five variables: government spending per capita, GDP per capita, consumption per capita, debt to GDP ratio, long term interest rate and real exchange rate. The consumption and output respond negatively to the innovation in government spending which is consistent with the standard neoclassical model. The interest rates increase in the face of expansionary fiscal spending. As government debt builds up with fiscal expansion, the rising risk of default or increasing inflation risk reinforce crowding out through interest rates. The real exchange rate tends to appreciate in response to rise in government spending. This finding is according to the open economy literature and also with the conventional literature. Keywords: Government Spending; Vector Autoregressive Model; Impulse Response Function; Neoclassical Model (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pid:journl:v:48:y:2009:i:4:p:973-988 Access Statistics for this article More articles in The Pakistan Development Review from Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Contact information at EDIRC. |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.