Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Case Study of Pakistan

Pervez Janjua (), Samad Ghulam () and Nazakat Khan
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Nazakat Khan: International Institute of Islamic Economics, International Islamic University (IIUI), Islamabad

The Pakistan Development Review, 2010, vol. 49, issue 4, 799–822

Abstract: Climate change, due to greenhouse gases increasing the earth’s overall temperature, is an emerging issue of agricultural production. The higher temperatures may negatively affect the growth process of wheat and decrease the production of wheat. The objective of this study is to look at the impact of climate change on wheat production which is the main food crop of Pakistan. The study uses the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model to evaluate the impact of global climate change on the production of wheat in Pakistan. The study considers annual data from 1960 to 2009. On the basis of this historical data, the study captures trends for the impact of climate change on wheat production for the period 2010-2060. The results of the historical data estimation reveal that up until now, there is no significant negative impact of climate change on wheat production in Pakistan. However, future wheat production will significantly depend on the climate change variables. Therefore, appropriate adaptative and mitigative techniques are recommended to cope with or at least to reduce this newly emerging hazard.

Keywords: Climate Change; Global Warming; Greenhouse Gases (GHGs); C3&C4 Crops (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q10 Q53 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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