Forest Wood Consumption and Wood Shortage in Pakistan: Estimation and Projection through System Dynamics

Naila Nazir, Laura Schmitt Olabisi and Salman Ahmad
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Naila Nazir: Department of Economics, University of Peshawar, Peshawar.
Laura Schmitt Olabisi: Department of Community Sustainability Environmental Science and Policy Programme, Michigan State University, USA
Salman Ahmad: Faculty of Business, Dubai Men’s College, Higher College of Technology, United Arab Emirates.

The Pakistan Development Review, 2018, vol. 57, issue 1, 73-98

Abstract: Consumption rates of major forest products such as timber and firewood, place significant strain on wood stock and forest area in Pakistan. With the country's rising population, the consumption of these two major products is increasing because of the growing energy demand, and no alternative products are likely to replace wood consumption in the near future. We apply system dynamics modelling to an analysis of the forestry sector in Pakistan for novel insights into the drivers and future trajectories of wood consumption. The present research is based on time series macroeconomic data from 1990-2010 and projections to 2040 of wood supply, forest area, population growth, wood extraction, wood imports and different uses of wood in the country. The study reveals that there is no significant increase in area under forest, while consumption of firewood and timber has increased. The consumption of firewood is greater than timber consumption in Pakistan, both in percentage share and in total volume of wood consumption. The sustainable supply of wood is less than wood consumption, and with population growth this gap is increasing; wood supply from agricultural lands is a viable option to fill the gap. Keywords: Wood Consumption, Sustainable Wood Supply, Projected Wood Shortage

Keywords: Wood Consumption; Sustainable Wood Supply; Projected Wood Shortage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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