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Does Pak-Rupee Exchange Rate Respond to Monetary Fundamentals? A Structural Analysis

Muhammad Arshad and Saima Nawaz
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Muhammad Arshad: Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad.
Saima Nawaz: Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad.

The Pakistan Development Review, 2018, vol. 57, issue 2, 175-202

Abstract: This study empirically examines the contribution of monetary fundamentals in explaining nominal exchange rate movements in the case of Pak-rupee vis-à-vis US-dollar over the period 1982Q2 to 2014Q2. The empirical results support the existence of cointegration relationship between nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals. The results reveal that relative money stocks and real income are the key drivers of exchange rate determination in Pakistan in the long-run. For dynamic interaction, the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) method is applied. Results from the SVAR show that the responses of exchange rate to shocks, originated from money supply, income, interest rate and inflation differentials, are consistent with the predictions of the flexible-price variant of the monetary model of exchange rate in the short-run. More specifically, the results indicate that inflation and interest rate differential explain maximum variations in exchange rate in the short-run. In essence, results suggest that monetary fundamentals are the key drivers of exchange rate fluctuations in Pakistan, especially in the short-run

Keywords: Monetary Model; Exchange Rate; SVAR; Pakistan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 F33 C32 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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