SHORT-TERM FORECASTING: An Application of Box-Jenkins Methods

S. Fakre Mahmud and Mohammed Nishat*

Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, 1987, vol. 6, issue 1, 61-65

Abstract: Shaikh and Zaman (1983) have used time series methods to forecast basmati rice exports in Pakistan. This paper re-examines the techniques used by these authors. Shaikh and Zaman predicted an increase in exports, from 261.808·in 1981 -82 to 2900418 in 1982-83. Albeit, the actual exports declined to 237.739 in 1982-83. Our model , on the other hand, correctly picked the pattern and the forecast for 1982- 83 is quite close to the actual value, i.e ., 238.18. Our results clearly indicate that proper application of time series methods significantly improves the quality of forecast.

Date: 1987
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://aerc.edu.pk/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/4th-paper-Page-61-65-1.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pje:journl:article1987sumiv

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics from Applied Economics Research Centre Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Samina Khalil ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).