Another Look at the Sarima Modelling of the Number of Dengue Cases in Campinas, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Ette Harrison Etuk and Nathaniel Ojekudo

International Journal of Natural Sciences Research, 2014, vol. 2, issue 9, 156-164

Abstract: Martinez, et al. [1] analysed monthly numbers of dengue cases as reported in Campinas, southeast Brazil from 1998 to 2008, by SARIMA methods. Assuming X is the original series, they analysed the logarithm of X + 1. The models they proposed and compared are of orders (2,1,2)x(1,1,1)12, (2,1,1)x(1,1,1)12, (1,1,2)x(1,1,1)12, (1,1,1)x(1,1,1)12, (2,1,3)x(1,1,1)12, and (1,1,3)x(1,1,1)12. Using the R software, they chose the SARIMA(2,1,2)x(1,1,1)12 model as the best on the basis of Akaike information criterion, AIC. The result in this work is different: the SARIMA(2,1,1)x(1,1,1)12 model is herein adjudged as the best on the same minimum AIC grounds.

Keywords: Dengue; SARIMA; Time series analysis; Statistics; seasonal series; Eviews; AIC (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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