A framework for modelling desert locust population dynamics and large-scale dispersal

Renata Retkute, William Thurston, Keith Cressman and Christopher A Gilligan

PLOS Computational Biology, 2024, vol. 20, issue 12, 1-27

Abstract: There is an urgent need for mathematical models that can be used to inform the deployment of surveillance, early warning and management systems for transboundary pest invasions. This is especially important for desert locust, one of the most dangerous migratory pests for smallholder farmers. During periods of desert locust upsurges and plagues, gregarious adult locusts form into swarms that are capable of long-range dispersal. Here we introduce a novel integrated modelling framework for use in predicting gregarious locust populations. The framework integrates the selection of breeding sites, maturation through egg, hopper and adult stages and swarm dispersal in search of areas suitable for feeding and breeding. Using a combination of concepts from epidemiological modelling, weather and environment data, together with an atmospheric transport model for swarm movement we provide a tool to forecast short- and long-term swarm movements. A principal aim of the framework is to provide a practical starting point for use in the next upsurge.Author summary: There is a critical need for tools that can help manage and predict the spread of transboundary pests, especially the desert locust, one of the most destructive pests for smallholder farmers and pastoralists. During upsurges, desert locusts form massive swarms that can travel long distances, causing severe damage to crops and natural vegetation. To address this, we have developed an integrated modelling framework designed to predict the behaviour of these migratory locust populations. The framework takes into account the selection of breeding sites, the life cycle of the locust (from egg to adult), and the movement of swarms as they search for food and breeding grounds. By combining techniques from epidemiological modelling, weather forecasting, environmental data, and atmospheric models, the tool is designed to forecast locust swarm movements in both the short and long term. The ultimate goal of the framework is to provide a practical resource that can be used to prepare for and respond to future locust upsurges.

Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pcbi00:1012562

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012562

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