Multiscale modeling of T cell exhaustion: A mathematical framework integrating continuous dynamics with spatial heterogeneity

Chenghang Li, Yuhong Zhang, Xue Liu, Yipu Qu, Xiulan Lai and Jinzhi Lei

PLOS Computational Biology, 2026, vol. 22, issue 8, 1-26

Abstract: Continuous antigen exposure drives T cells into a progressive state of dysfunction known as exhaustion, enabling tumors to evade immune surveillance and promoting disease progression. Despite its importance, predictive modeling of T cell exhaustion remains a major challenge due to the complexity of its regulatory dynamics. To address this challenge, we developed a mathematical framework that characterizes the dynamic regulation of T cell exhaustion and its impact on tumor-immune interactions. Here, we integrate multi-source data, population dynamics modeling, and agent-based modeling to track the progressive stages of CD8+ T cell exhaustion. Our model demonstrates that immune checkpoint blockade significantly delays exhaustion and promotes the expansion of tumor-reactive T cells compared to untreated conditions. From a pseudo-potential energy perspective, we show that the core mechanism of immunotherapy lies in expanding the tumor-reactive T cell pool, which consequently reduces the overall state of exhaustion within the system. We find that T cell activation and exhaustion signals jointly govern tumor-immune dynamics. Enhancing activation alone without restricting exhaustion can inadvertently accelerate the loss of T cell function. In contrast, combining enhanced activation (via anti-CTLA-4) with suppressed exhaustion (via anti-PD-1) is essential for achieving a sustained antitumor response. Furthermore, spatial simulations confirm that a high-activation and low-exhaustion state effectively restricts tumor spread, maintaining substantially lower tumor densities compared to low-activation, high-exhaustion scenarios. Our framework provides quantitative insights into T cell exhaustion and a theoretical foundation for optimizing combination immunotherapies.Author summary: T cell exhaustion, driven by prolonged antigen exposure in chronic infections and cancer, progressively impairs T cell function and increases inhibitory receptor expression. Notably, PD-1/PD-L1 blockades can reinvigorate partially exhausted T cell subsets, offering a key clinical strategy to improve the efficacy of immune checkpoint therapies. In this study, we develop a mathematical model that captures the detailed interactions between five distinct T cell subtypes and tumor cells to investigate exhaustion dynamics in cancer. Our results illustrate how immunotherapeutic interventions reshape the tumor-immune landscape. By simulating combination therapies, we demonstrate that optimal treatment outcomes depend critically on the balance between T cell activation and exhaustion. Different activation-exhaustion profiles lead to qualitatively different outcomes in tumor control. Our framework provides quantitative insights into these complex dynamics, offering a solid theoretical basis to guide the design of more effective combination immunotherapies.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pcbi00:1014690

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014690

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