Unpacking the role of climate variability on displacement in the Greater Horn of Africa

Victor Villa, Pierfrancesco Rolla, Marina Mastrorillo, Anna Belli, Grazia Pacillo and Peter Läderach

PLOS Climate, 2026, vol. 5, issue 2, 1-30

Abstract: This study combines granular climate data with individual-level information on mobility and displacement to investigate the nexus between climate and individual reporting of displacement in the Greater Horn of Africa, a region most affected by climate-induced displacement. Results from a linear probability model, supported by several robustness checks, underscore the complexity of such relationship. Specifically, we find that wetter and extremely wetter than usual conditions correlate with a significantly higher likelihood of individual self-reported displacement, while dry and extremely dry conditions are respectively associated with a non-significant or a significantly lower likelihood of self-reported displacement. We identify two distinct pathways through which various climatic stressors influence self-reported displacement. These pathways include adaptation strategies and immediate responses in agricultural areas, as well as compounded climate and conflict effects. Our results additionally underscore heterogeneous effects in the relationship between climate and self-reported displacement among various groups. Distinctions based on gender, age, education, and typology of movement (within or across borders) emerge as particularly relevant factors that influence the self-reported displacement. Collectively, these findings contribute to a better understanding of the intricate dynamics underlying the climate-displacement nexus in the Greater Horn of Africa, further highlighting the need to develop strategies to anticipate and respond to climate-induced displacement.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pclm00:0000594

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000594

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