Treating Earth as a living system: Facing the lacking clinical expertise

Tilo Meißner

PLOS Climate, 2026, vol. 5, issue 4, 1-10

Abstract: Earth’s physical and social-ecological world is currently undergoing a conflux of major changes that can be understood as a metamorphosis, stress-testing boundary conditions for life on Earth as we know it. Since humanity has neither practical experience of, nor data about, successfully dealing with this type of event reference class forecasting is used in this essay to inform sensible responses. The metamorphosis has been compared to a disease with existential threats to humanity. Therefore, due to its experience in dealing with diseases and existential threats to complex living systems, knowledge from evidence based medicine is chosen as a reference class to explore practical implications for successfully treating patient Earth. The Analysis is strongly suggesting that missing clinical knowledge and expertise due to lacking real-world evidence multiplies the risks and uncertainties, thereby demanding decisive action on a vastly higher scale from the one currently advised and undertaken. There is no second chance for first aid: procrastinating necessary reanimation makes it obsolete.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pclm00:0000896

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000896

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