Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence in East Africa: Updating data for malaria stratification

Victor A Alegana, Peter M Macharia, Samuel Muchiri, Eda Mumo, Elvis Oyugi, Alice Kamau, Frank Chacky, Sumaiyya Thawer, Fabrizio Molteni, Damian Rutazanna, Catherine Maiteki-Sebuguzi, Samuel Gonahasa, Abdisalan M Noor and Robert W Snow

PLOS Global Public Health, 2021, vol. 1, issue 12, 1-21

Abstract: The High Burden High Impact (HBHI) strategy for malaria encourages countries to use multiple sources of available data to define the sub-national vulnerabilities to malaria risk, including parasite prevalence. Here, a modelled estimate of Plasmodium falciparum from an updated assembly of community parasite survey data in Kenya, mainland Tanzania, and Uganda is presented and used to provide a more contemporary understanding of the sub-national malaria prevalence stratification across the sub-region for 2019. Malaria prevalence data from surveys undertaken between January 2010 and June 2020 were assembled form each of the three countries. Bayesian spatiotemporal model-based approaches were used to interpolate space-time data at fine spatial resolution adjusting for population, environmental and ecological covariates across the three countries. A total of 18,940 time-space age-standardised and microscopy-converted surveys were assembled of which 14,170 (74.8%) were identified after 2017. The estimated national population-adjusted posterior mean parasite prevalence was 4.7% (95% Bayesian Credible Interval 2.6–36.9) in Kenya, 10.6% (3.4–39.2) in mainland Tanzania, and 9.5% (4.0–48.3) in Uganda. In 2019, more than 12.7 million people resided in communities where parasite prevalence was predicted ≥ 30%, including 6.4%, 12.1% and 6.3% of Kenya, mainland Tanzania and Uganda populations, respectively. Conversely, areas that supported very low parasite prevalence (

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pgph00:0000014

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000014

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