The association between monthly ambient temperatures and ischemic heart disease mortality in the United States: A nationwide ecological analysis, 1999–2020

Hafiz M Ahmed, Ubaid ur Rehman, Zubian Ahmed, Muhammad Owais, Ehsan Zaib and Muhammad Moeez Mustafa

PLOS Global Public Health, 2026, vol. 6, issue 6, 1-15

Abstract: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, but the long-term impact of ambient temperature on IHD mortality remains poorly characterized. Existing research has largely examined short-term temperature extremes. This study is among the first to quantify the association between monthly ambient temperature and IHD mortality across the United States over a 22-year period. In this nationwide ecological study, we examined monthly state-level associations between ambient temperature and IHD mortality from 1999–2020. Mortality data were obtained from CDC WONDER and temperature data from the National Centers for Environmental Information. A negative binomial regression with a distributed lag non-linear model estimated the temperature–mortality relationship, adjusting for state, year, and month fixed effects. Subgroup analyses were conducted by age, sex, race, and climate. A strong inverse association between ambient temperature and IHD mortality was observed (Wald p

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pgph00:0006641

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0006641

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