Spatial Re-Establishment Dynamics of Local Populations of Vectors of Chagas Disease

Heinrich zu Dohna, María C Cecere, Ricardo E Gürtler, Uriel Kitron and Joel E Cohen

PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2009, vol. 3, issue 7, 1-11

Abstract: Background: Prevention of Chagas disease depends mainly on control of the insect vectors that transmit infection. Unfortunately, the vectors have been resurgent in some areas. It is important to understand the dynamics of reinfestation where it occurs. Here we show how continuous- and discrete-time models fitted to patch-level infestation states can elucidate different aspects of re-establishment. Triatoma infestans, the main vector of Chagas disease, reinfested sites in three villages in northwest Argentina after community-wide insecticide spraying in October 1992. Methodology/Principal Findings: Different methods of estimating the probabilities of bug establishment on each site were compared. The results confirmed previous results showing a 6-month time lag between detection of a new infestation and dispersal events. The analysis showed that more new bug populations become established from May to November than from November to May. This seasonal increase in bug establishment coincides with a seasonal increase in dispersal distance. In the fitted models, the probability of new bug establishment increases with increasing time since last detected infestation. Conclusions/Significance: These effects of season and previous infestation on bug establishment challenge our current understanding of T. infestans ecology and highlight important gaps in knowledge. Experiments necessary to close these gaps are discussed. Author Summary: Chagas disease is transmitted by blood-sucking bugs (vectors) and presents a severe public health threat in the Americas. Worldwide there are approximately 10 million people infected with Chagas disease, a disease for which there is currently no effective cure. Vector suppression is the main strategy to control the spread of this disease. Unfortunately, the vectors have been resurgent in some areas. It is important to understand the dynamics of reinfestation where it occurs. Here we show how different models fitted to patch-level bug infestation data can elucidate different aspects of re-establishment dynamics. Our results demonstrated a 6-month time lag between detection of a new infestation and dispersal events, seasonality in dispersal rates and effects of previous vector infestation on subsequent vector establishment rates. In addition we provide estimates of dispersal distances and the effect of insecticide spraying on rates of vector re-establishment. While some of our results confirm previous findings, the effects of season and previous infestation on bug establishment challenge our current understanding of T. infestans ecology and highlight important gaps in our knowledge of T. infestans dispersal.

Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pntd00:0000490

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000490

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