 Statistical Modeling Reveals the Effect of Absolute Humidity on Dengue in SingaporeHai-Yan Xu, Xiuju Fu, Lionel Kim Hock Lee, Stefan Ma, Kee Tai Goh, Jiancheng Wong, Mohamed Salahuddin Habibullah, Gary Kee Khoon Lee, Tian Kuay Lim, Paul Anantharajah Tambyah, Chin Leong Lim and Lee Ching Ng PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2014, vol. 8, issue 5, 1-11 Abstract: Weather factors are widely studied for their effects on indicating dengue incidence trends. However, these studies have been limited due to the complex epidemiology of dengue, which involves dynamic interplay of multiple factors such as herd immunity within a population, distinct serotypes of the virus, environmental factors and intervention programs. In this study, we investigate the impact of weather factors on dengue in Singapore, considering the disease epidemiology and profile of virus serotypes. A Poisson regression combined with Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) was used to evaluate and compare the impact of weekly Absolute Humidity (AH) and other weather factors (mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and wind speed) on dengue incidence from 2001 to 2009. The same analysis was also performed on three sub-periods, defined by predominant circulating serotypes. The performance of DLNM regression models were then evaluated through the Akaike's Information Criterion. From the correlation and DLNM regression modeling analyses of the studied period, AH was found to be a better predictor for modeling dengue incidence than the other unique weather variables. Whilst mean temperature (MeanT) also showed significant correlation with dengue incidence, the relationship between AH or MeanT and dengue incidence, however, varied in the three sub-periods. Our results showed that AH had a more stable impact on dengue incidence than temperature when virological factors were taken into consideration. AH appeared to be the most consistent factor in modeling dengue incidence in Singapore. Considering the changes in dominant serotypes, the improvements in vector control programs and the inconsistent weather patterns observed in the sub-periods, the impact of weather on dengue is modulated by these other factors. Future studies on the impact of climate change on dengue need to take all the other contributing factors into consideration in order to make meaningful public policy recommendations.Author Summary: As dengue virus transmission is through a human-to-mosquito-to-human cycle, the influence of meteorological factors on dengue is likely to be associated with their impact on mosquito populations and behavior. Other than the influence of weather factors, the shift of dominant serotypes and pre-emptive measures taken against dengue vectors may possibly affect the dengue transmission trend. In this study, we investigate the impact of weather factors on dengue in tropical Singapore, taking into consideration the disease epidemiology and profile of virus serotypes. We found that absolute humidity, as a composite index of mean temperature and relative humidity, is a more stable and better predictor for modeling dengue incidence than the other unique weather variables when virological factors are taken into consideration. This research suggests that absolute humidity needs to be considered together with all the other contributing factors in order to make meaningful public policy recommendations for dengue control. Date: 2014 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pntd00:0002805 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002805 Access Statistics for this article More articles in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases from Public Library of Science |
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