Socioeconomic drivers of human Brucellosis in Ningxia, China: A one health and spatiotemporal analysis for targeted intervention

Ping Zhang, Xiaojuan Ma, Ting Pan, Jingxia Dang, Dongfeng Pan, Mingbo Chen and Peifeng Liang

PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2026, vol. 20, issue 3, 1-17

Abstract: Objective: This study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of human brucellosis and quantify the exposure-lag-response relationships of key socioeconomic and livestock production drivers in Ningxia, China, from 2007 to 2022. The goal was to generate evidence for developing targeted, integrated interventions in this high-burden pastoral region. Methods: We conducted a retrospective ecological study integrating human brucellosis surveillance data with county-level socioeconomic and livestock production statistics. A multi-analytic framework was employed: Joinpoint regression analyzed long-term trends; spatiotemporal scan statistics identified high-risk clusters; GeoDetector quantified the explanatory power of potential drivers on spatial heterogeneity; and Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models (DLNMs) were constructed to assess the nonlinear and lagged effects of significant drivers on monthly incidence. Results: The human brucellosis incidence rate in Ningxia increased 167-fold, from 0.52 to 86.83 per 100,000 population between 2007 and 2022. Spatiotemporal analysis revealed a persistent high-risk cluster (Relative Risk, RR = 4.22, P

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pntd00:0014124

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0014124

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