Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of dengue in Ningbo City, China before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic interventions

Yanru Chu, Yunkang Zhao, Buasiyamu Abudunaibi, Yao Wang, Yanwu Zhang, Song Lei, Yang Mao, Tianfeng He, Tianmu Chen and Yi Chen

PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2026, vol. 20, issue 10, 1-21

Abstract: Background: Ningbo experienced a local dengue outbreak in 2018–2019, followed by the implementation and relaxation of COVID-19 pandemic interventions. Evidence has been limited on dengue epidemiology and the transmissibility across these periods. Methods: We analyzed routine dengue cases and mosquito surveillance data from 2017 to 2024, using descriptive analyses to assess the epidemiological characteristics, and a mathematical model was developed to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0). Results: A total of 266 dengue cases were reported, with no deaths. Before the pandemic interventions, 51.19% of cases were overseas-imported; no cases were reported during pandemic interventions, whereas 73.47% were domestically imported after pandemic interventions. The median age of cases was 38.50 years (IQR = 31.25-54.00), and 57.52% were unemployed, retired, or in commercial services. The onset-to-diagnosis interval shortened post-interventions (4.46 days vs. 2.67 days). Viral typing increased post-interventions (34.59% vs. 63.27%), with 83.70% of cases identified as dengue virus-1 infections. Dengue cases were reported across all districts, with higher proportions in Haishu (27.07%) and Yinzhou (24.44%). The incidence was 2.82 per 100,000 persons. Incidence did not differ significantly by sex, but was significantly higher among individuals 15–59 years and those aged ≥60years than among those aged ≤14 years (3.18 and 3.01 per 100,000 persons, respectively, vs. 0.45 per 100,000 persons). Incidence was highest in Haishu and Jiangbei (6.90 and 4.93 per 100,000 persons, respectively). A post-intervention incidence rebound was observed, although no statistically significant differences were observed in the ≤ 14 age group, Beilun District, Ninghai County and Xiangshan County. Aedes albopictus was the only vector species. The mean Breteau Index was 16.07 (SD: 8.04) and decreased across phases, and rebounded in Jiangbei, Zhenhai, and Haishu districts. The mean BI was higher in summer compared to other seasons (p 0.95). The median R0 was higher in the outbreak years (3.46, IQR = 2.98-3.95) than years without local transmission (0.00, IQR = 0.00-0.00; p

Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0014813

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