Hirsch Index and Truth Survival in Clinical Research

Thierry Poynard, Dominique Thabut, Mona Munteanu, Vlad Ratziu, Yves Benhamou and Olivier Deckmyn

PLOS ONE, 2010, vol. 5, issue 8, 1-10

Abstract: Background: Factors associated with the survival of truth of clinical conclusions in the medical literature are unknown. We hypothesized that publications with a first author having a higher Hirsch' index value (h-I), which quantifies and predicts an individual's scientific research output, should have a longer half-life. Methods and Results: 474 original articles concerning cirrhosis or hepatitis published from 1945 to 1999 were selected. The survivals of the main conclusions were updated in 2009. The truth survival was assessed by time-dependent methods (Kaplan Meier method and Cox). A conclusion was considered to be true, obsolete or false when three or more observers out of the six stated it to be so. 284 out of 474 conclusions (60%) were still considered true, 90 (19%) were considered obsolete and 100 (21%) false. The median of the h-I was = 24 (range 1–85). Authors with true conclusions had significantly higher h-I (median = 28) than those with obsolete (h-I = 19; P = 0.002) or false conclusions (h-I = 19; P = 0.01). The factors associated (P 30 years vs. 16 for

Date: 2010
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0012044

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0012044

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