Efficient Simulation of the Spatial Transmission Dynamics of Influenza

Meng-Tsung Tsai, Tsurng-Chen Chern, Jen-Hsiang Chuang, Chih-Wen Hsueh, Hsu-Sung Kuo, Churn-Jung Liau, Steven Riley, Bing-Jie Shen, Chih-Hao Shen, Da-Wei Wang and Tsan-Sheng Hsu

PLOS ONE, 2010, vol. 5, issue 11, 1-8

Abstract: Early data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (H1N1pdm) suggest that previous studies over-estimated the within-country rate of spatial spread of pandemic influenza. As large spatially resolved data sets are constructed, the need for efficient simulation code with which to investigate the spatial patterns of the pandemic becomes clear. Here, we present a significant improvement to the efficiency of an individual-based stochastic disease simulation framework commonly used in multiple previous studies. We quantify the efficiency of the revised algorithm and present an alternative parameterization of the model in terms of the basic reproductive number. We apply the model to the population of Taiwan and demonstrate how the location of the initial seed can influence spatial incidence profiles and the overall spread of the epidemic. Differences in incidence are driven by the relative connectivity of alternate seed locations. The ability to perform efficient simulation allows us to run a batch of simulations and take account of their average in real time. The averaged data are stable and can be used to differentiate spreading patterns that are not readily seen by only conducting a few runs.

Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0013292 (text/html)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id= ... 13292&type=printable (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0013292

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0013292

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in PLOS ONE from Public Library of Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by plosone ().